About a third of mortgage holders say they expect to renew within the next 12 months, and more than two-thirds of those homeowners saying they’re anxious about what that will cost as interest rates are expected to rise.
That’s according to an online survey of close to 2,000 Canadians across the country, conducted in February for Mortgage Professionals Canada.
Home-ownership costs are weighing on recent buyers in particular, with 37% first-time buyers who jumped into the market in the past five years now regretting the size of their mortgage. Among newcomers to Canada, 67% said they are already struggling to make payments, compared to just 6% of mortgage holders overall.
“These findings show how uneven mortgage-market pressure has become,” said Maxime Stencer, chair of the board of Mortgage Professionals Canada. “Recent buyers and newcomers are often among the most exposed because they entered the market at higher prices, with larger obligations and less room for error.”
Housing prices have declined from their 2022 peak, but affordability remains a challenge. More than one-third (36%) of Canadians now say they would need to rent out part of their home in order to manage home ownership costs, up from 25% in 2021. Newcomers are most likely (53%) to turn to their home to generate income.
Among mortgage holders overall, 44% said they would have difficulty if payments rose by less than 15%, highlighting how stretched some households are.
“Renewal pressure is not just about interest rates. It is about how much room households have to absorb a higher payment,” said Lauren van den Berg, president and CEO of Mortgage Professionals Canada. “This research shows many borrowers are approaching renewal with thin payment buffers, which makes early advice, careful planning and access to the right mortgage options more important than ever.”
While stresses for new homeowners are mounting, non-homeowners are feeling better about their chances to enter the market. Just under one-third (32%) said they don’t expect to ever own a home, down from just over half (51%) in 2023 and back to 2022 levels (33%).
That’s even while 66% say current economic conditions have delayed their plans to buy. About a fifth (22%) of non-homeowners expect to make their first purchase within the next two years.
Another poll on homeownership released this week, commissioned by RBC, found that more than half of prospective buyers (53%) see a limited current window before home prices rise again. At the same time, 49% expect interest rates to climb this year.
That online poll of 1,753 Canadians aged 18 to 64 was conducted between April 23 and May 3, 2026, using Leger’s online panel, which has 400,000 members nationally.